What makes ARB different
ARB funding often moves around supply events and ecosystem news rather than pure price momentum, so the calendar matters as much as the chart.
The main ARB failure mode
A carry entered before a supply or governance event can be wiped out by a single scheduled move that had nothing to do with funding.
The wallet-level question
Does anything scheduled land inside the intended holding period?
ARB funding decision checklist
Funding is peer-to-peer and settles hourly. The worked example below is arithmetic, not a live quote or return forecast.
| Check | What to verify |
| 1 | Check upcoming supply and governance dates |
| 2 | Compare funding against event-driven volatility |
| 3 | Size so an event gap does not force an exit |
| 4 | Confirm the sign is not purely event anticipation |
Worked example: at $10,000 oracle notional, an hourly funding rate of 0.01% implies a $1 payment for that interval before trading fees, slippage, and price PnL. Payment direction depends on the sign of the rate and the side of the position.